Monday, July 27, 2009

USDCHF

Today and last friday I'm in long position USDCHF, because according to the PPP model, Franc is the most overvalued currency against US dollar, but this is not the most important reason. SNB still suports weaker swiss frank as a part of quantitave easing, and they are not likely anytime soon to stop with QE, as global economy is not yet in full recovery and weaker franc will trigger more exports. Therefore we should wait, before SNB stop with QE and franc devaluation and as we are smart traders we will not bet against big guy. According to TA, on a monthly chart we can see strong support around 1.06 so we should place stop losses under this level. We can expect some tests of this support but I belive SNB is very likley to intervene and defend this level and move pair beyond 1.09 in medium term. If we see more troubles is US economy that could fuel stronger swiss franc but we live today not in future.

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